The IQ Loop
PilotA member feature, open to every reader while we test it.Your answers stay on this device, or sign in to keep them on every device.
Put a number on it
Each question is about something that will be decided in the coming months. Give the chance you think it happens. When it is settled, we report it, and your forecast is scored against what really happened.
- Digital identityOpen until 31 Dec 2026
Will Germany's d-you wallet be available to the public on 2 January 2027, as planned?
The federal government has named its EU digital identity wallet d-you and set 2 January 2027 as the launch date, with around 40 partners preparing services.
How it will be settled
Yes if, by 9 January 2027, d-you can be downloaded from the German app stores and used for at least one credential. No otherwise.
- Digital identityOpen until 20 Dec 2026
By 24 December 2026, will at least 14 of the 27 EU member states make an EU digital identity wallet available to citizens?
With the deadline about three months away in September, 24 of the 27 member states had yet to offer a wallet, according to Brussels Signal.
How it will be settled
Yes if the European Commission, or consistent reporting from at least two reputable outlets, shows 14 or more member states with a wallet available to the public on 24 December 2026.
- Digital identityOpen until 10 Nov 2026
Will Vietnam report that test connections between VNeID and Singpass were completed by 15 November 2026?
Decision No. 1830/QD-TTg sets 15 November for test connections and integration checks with Singapore and Laos, ahead of airport pilots in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
How it will be settled
Yes if Vietnamese authorities or state media report, by 30 November 2026, that test connections with Singpass were completed on or before 15 November.
- Digital identityOpen until 15 Dec 2026
Will Singpass passkeys work for logins on laptops and desktops by 31 December 2026?
GovTech launched Singpass passkeys for iPhone in July and Android in September, and plans to extend them to desktop users by the end of 2026.
How it will be settled
Yes if GovTech or Singpass announces that desktop or laptop logins with passkeys are available to the public by 31 December 2026.
- Public servicesOpen until 15 Mar 2027
Will Americans be able to renew a passport through America.gov by 31 March 2027?
America.gov launched on 29 September as an AI search over federal services. Passport processing and other automated services are planned for early 2027.
How it will be settled
Yes if, by 31 March 2027, a passport renewal can be started and submitted through America.gov itself, not only by a link to another site.
- Digital identityOpen until 15 Mar 2027
Will South Africa's Home Affairs report the hosting infrastructure for the national digital ID as complete by 31 March 2027?
Home Affairs set 31 March 2027 to finish the hosting infrastructure, with the full platform due in 2027/28.
How it will be settled
Yes if Home Affairs, or reputable reporting citing it, states by 30 April 2027 that the hosting infrastructure was completed on or before 31 March 2027.
- CybersecurityOpen until 15 Dec 2026
Will the FBI publicly confirm, by 31 December 2026, that personal data was stolen from its recruitment systems?
ShinyHunters claims it stole two to three terabytes through a PeopleSoft zero-day. The FBI has so far acknowledged only an investigation into unauthorised activity.
How it will be settled
Yes if the FBI or the Justice Department states that personal data was taken, or notifies affected people, by 31 December 2026.
- Policy and paymentsOpen until 15 Jan 2027
Will the pilot of India's National Digital Tourism Stack start by 31 January 2027?
The tourism ministry and ONDC launched the stack on World Tourism Day, with a pilot planned from January to June 2027.
How it will be settled
Yes if the ministry or ONDC announces that the pilot is live, with at least one participating business or state, by 31 January 2027.
- Policy and paymentsOpen until 25 Jan 2027
Will Brazil's hybrid boleto-and-Pix billing rule take effect on 1 February 2027, as scheduled?
The central bank's revised Pix rulebook schedules hybrid boleto and Pix billing to come into force on 1 February 2027.
How it will be settled
Yes if the rule comes into force on 1 February 2027 without a published postponement. No if the date is moved.
- Public servicesOpen until 15 Mar 2027
Will the digital driving licence be available to the public in the GOV.UK Wallet by 31 March 2027?
A public trial began in 2026, but in September the GOV.UK Wallet still listed the driving licence as coming in future.
How it will be settled
Yes if any UK driver can add a digital driving licence to the GOV.UK Wallet without joining a trial by 31 March 2027.
Why it works
None of the four steps is our invention. What is new is putting them together around real, current events, so that the news itself becomes the feedback. Whether the combination improves work in government is what this pilot is for; we will publish what we find.
Forecast
In forecasting tournaments run for the US intelligence community, training in probabilistic reasoning made forecasts more accurate, and teams beat individuals. A training module of under an hour improved accuracy by 6 to 11 per cent over four years.
Compare
People who compared two cases were far more likely to use the shared principle in a new situation than people who studied the same two cases one at a time, who did no better than people given no cases at all.
Decide
Working on a problem before being taught the answer improves conceptual understanding compared with instruction first, across 53 studies. It helps understanding and judgment more than routine procedures.
Recall
Testing yourself beats rereading, with effects of about half a standard deviation across hundreds of studies. Spacing reviews out and mixing topics each add their own gains.
Adesope et al., 2017Dunlosky et al., 2013Brunmair and Richter, 2019
Why your scores are private: feedback improves performance on average, but in about a third of studies it made performance worse, mostly when it turned attention from the task to the person (Kluger and DeNisi, 1996). So the IQ Loop has no public leaderboard, and teams will see only combined results.